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If the BJP indeed proves to be the most popular party in the New Delhi assembly constituency, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal’s loss would be a big upset and reminiscent of the one caused by him in 2013
AAP chief and former Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has won the New Delhi assembly constituency thrice before. (Image: PTI)
Axis My India chairman Pradeep Gupta on Thursday predicted that the BJP was the most popular party in the New Delhi assembly constituency, where AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal is pitted against the BJP’s Parvesh Verma and Sandeep Dikshit of the Congress.
The pollster has predicted 50 seats for the BJP in the Delhi assembly elections with a vote share of 48 per cent, while the AAP may win only 20 seats with a vote share of 42 per cent.
Gupta told CNN-News18’s managing editor Zakka Jacob that his agency does not do a seat-by-seat projection, but does reveal which party is the most popular in a particular constituency.
If the BJP indeed proves to be the most popular in the New Delhi assembly seat, Kejriwal’s loss could be a possibility after having won the seat thrice before. It could also be an ironic repeat of 2013 when he had caused a massive upset by defeating former chief minister Sheila Dikshit from here.
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OTHER BIG CONTESTS
Gupta predicted that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) remains the most popular in the Kalkaji, Babarpur and Greater Kailash assembly constituencies, while the BJP enjoyed the same status in Jangpura.
“Both the AAP and BJP are popular in Kalkaji where Chief Minister Atishi is fighting from, but the AAP has a slight edge. In Jangpura, the BJP has a slight edge over the AAP, where Manish Sisodia is contesting. In Greater Kailash, the AAP has a slight edge over the BJP, but it is not fully secured for the party – Saurabh Bharadwaj is contesting from here. Babarpur is secure for the AAP where Gopal Rai is contesting,” he said.
This could mean that big AAP names like Kejriwal and Sisodia may lose the election. They were previously CM and deputy in the AAP government and had to go to jail in the alleged excise scam.
CASTE-WISE PREDICTIONS
Today’s Chanakya has also predicted 51 seats for the BJP and only 19 for the AAP. Both Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya projected that 69 to 74 per cent Muslim vote remain with the AAP. So, there is hardly any split in this category with the Congress making minimal impact.
But, the pollsters are predicting a major split in the scheduled caste (SC) vote. Today’s Chanakya predicted 47 per cent SC vote to the BJP and 44 per cent to the AAP. Axis has projected 51 per cent SC vote to the AAP and 39 per cent to the BJP. This split, which is mainly in the jhuggis and clusters of Delhi, could be a game-changer if the BJP wins.
