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The bypoll in Milkipur, located in Ayodhya district along the borders of Amethi and Sultanpur, was necessitated after SP MLA Awadhesh Prasad was elected as an MP from Faizabad (Ayodhya) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections
Milkipur will see a fierce Yogi Adityanath versus Akhilesh Yadav clash. (PTI File)
The stage is set for an intense electoral battle in Uttar Pradesh’s Milkipur assembly constituency, where the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) are engaged in a direct contest.
On Tuesday, the polling parties left for their respective polling stations. Political analysts, however, have described the Milkipur bypolls as Hindutva versus SP’s trusted PDA (Picchda-Dalit-Alpsankhyak) formula.
The bypoll in Milkipur, located in Ayodhya district along the borders of Amethi and Sultanpur, was necessitated after SP MLA Awadhesh Prasad was elected as an MP from Faizabad (Ayodhya) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, the announcement of the election was initially delayed due to a writ petition filed by BJP’s Baba Gorakhnath, who contested the 2022 election from the seat. He challenged Prasad’s victory, questioning the authenticity of his nomination documents. After Gorakhnath withdrew his petition, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the bypoll date as February 5.
A CRUCIAL ELECTORAL CONTEST
The contest in Milkipur is primarily between BJP’s Chandrabhan Paswan and SP’s Ajeet Prasad. However, candidates like Azad Samaj Party’s Santosh Kumar Chaudhary and Congress rebel Bholanath Bharati have added more intrigue to the electoral battle. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a traditional player in Dalit politics, has opted out of the race, making the battle for Dalit votes, particularly among the Pasi community, a key deciding factor.
MILKIPUR CONSTITUENCY AT A GLANCE
Milkipur’s electorate comprises approximately 3.5 lakh voters, including over one lakh Dalits, 80,000 Yadavs and Muslims, and around one lakh Brahmins and Thakurs. Given this caste composition, the election is expected to be determined by how Dalit and upper-caste voters align.
Political analyst Shashikant Pandey, head of the Department of Political Science at Dr. Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, while highlighting the significance of caste dynamics in this election, said that the absence of the BSP has transformed the contest into a direct battle between BJP and SP. “The BJP’s attempt to consolidate Brahmin-Dalit support directly conflicts with SP’s PDA formula, and the outcome will indicate whether the BJP’s Hindutva and governance model or SP’s caste-centric approach holds more sway in Ayodhya’s rural belt.”
YOGI ADITYANATH LEADS THE CHARGE
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has taken charge of the BJP’s campaign, visiting Milkipur six times in the past six months. BJP’s campaign machinery has been in overdrive, deploying six senior ministers, including Swatantra Dev Singh, Surya Pratap Shahi, JPS Rathore, and Girish Yadav, alongside 40+ MLAs to spearhead a booth-level strategy.
Party insiders said that the BJP’s campaign included over 1,000 public meetings and ‘chaupals’ to engage with different voter groups, door-to-door outreach programmes led by party functionaries, and a special focus on Dalit and Brahmin outreach to counter SP’s PDA strategy.
Adityanath has repeatedly drawn comparisons with the Kundarki bypoll in Moradabad, where a division in Muslim votes helped the BJP clinch a surprise victory in 2024. The party now seeks to replicate similar caste realignments in Milkipur by aggressively courting Dalit voters, particularly Pasis, who hold sway in the constituency.
Another crucial aspect of BJP’s strategy is the development narrative. The Yogi government has launched projects worth Rs 1,000 crore in Milkipur, focusing on infrastructure, employment, and welfare schemes. Additionally, the distribution of private-sector job letters has been highlighted to attract youth voters.
BANKING ON THE PDA FORMULA AND LOCAL STRENGTH
For the SP, Milkipur is a prestige battle. Having won the seat in 2022, the party is determined to retain its hold by relying on its PDA coalition—a formula that played a key role in SP’s surprise victory in the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat in 2024. SP supremo Akhilesh Yadav, along with Dimple Yadav, has led the campaign with roadshows and rallies, ensuring that backward classes, Dalits, and Muslims remain firmly aligned with the party.
KEY FACTORS THAT WILL DECIDE THE WINNER
UP’s political observers said that the critical factor is the Dalit and Brahmin vote shift. With the BSP absent, Pasi votes are up for grabs. The SP has a historical edge, but the BJP is making a concerted effort to split this crucial vote bank. Brahmin votes, which leaned toward the SP in 2022, are also being aggressively courted by the BJP.
Another significant factor is the impact of Adityanath’s frequent visits. His direct involvement and the Rs 1,000 crore development push could sway undecided voters, especially younger voters attracted by employment promises and welfare schemes.
A PRESTIGE BATTLE FOR BJP AND SP
The Milkipur bypoll is more than just another election—it is a prestige battle for both the BJP and SP. A BJP victory would reaffirm Adityanath’s hold over Ayodhya’s politics, helping the party recover from its shocking defeat in the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat in 2024. For CM Yogi, a win would reaffirm the effectiveness of BJP’s Hindutva and governance narrative in rural UP. On the other hand, an SP win would strengthen Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA strategy.
