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Delhi Exit Polls 2025 Analysis: The exit polls put the AAP tally at xx-xx, while the Congress, which did not win a single seat in 2015 and 2020, is likely to take heart with xx-xx seats
While the AAP is eyeing a third straight term, banking on its governance record and welfare schemes, the BJP and Congress are looking for a resurgence. (Image: PTI)
The BJP is likely to make a comeback after more than 25 years in the Delhi assembly elections, according to exit poll results. If the party indeed gets the seats as predicted – somewhere between 35 and 40 in the 70-member House – it would end the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP’s decade-long dominance in the national capital’s Vidhan Sabha.
But, the exit polls show that this may be a close contest with the AAP tally at 32 to 27 seats, while the Congress, which did not win a single seat in 2015 and 2020, is likely to repeat its performance yet again either by not opening its account or winning at least one seat.
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Here’s what the exit polls look like:
ABP Matrize
According to the ABP Matrize exit polls, it will be a close contest between the BJP and AAP. It predicted 35 to 40 seats for the BJP, and 32 to 27 for the AAP.
AAP: 32-27
BJP: 35-40
Congress: 0-1
Delhi recorded a turnout of 57.7 per cent by 5 pm while the provisional numbers are yet to be released by the Election Commission of India (ECI) as voting closed at 6 pm. Polling was conducted in 13,766 stations to decide the fate of 699 candidates in a contest that could reshape the political landscape of the national capital. While the AAP is eyeing a third straight term, banking on its governance record and welfare schemes, the BJP and Congress are looking for a resurgence.
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WHAT DO THE EXIT POLL RESULTS MEAN?
For the BJP, this could be the end of what many saw as a jinx, as the party made clean sweeps in Delhi in the last three Lok Sabha elections, yet could not win the assembly elections. The party won the very first assembly election in 1993, and served a five-year term with three different chief ministers through it. It lost in 1998, and the Congress went onto rule for 15 years before the AAP phenomenon hit.
The AAP and its supremo Arvind Kejriwal have centred their politics so far around Delhi, though the party is also in power in Punjab. A loss in Delhi, therefore, could lead to an existential crisis for it, especially with the Congress now resurgent. The party gained from the fact that Delhi, being the capital, gets disproportionately high attention even when the assembly is nowhere comparable to other states in terms of its size and powers.
In terms of seats, the Congress tally may not look big. The context matters, however. After three consecutive losses in the Lok Sabha and now the Vidhan Sabha, the party may be written off at face value. But, recovering lost ground in Delhi helps it underline its position as the pre-eminent anti-BJP force in the country.
Around 2012, Kejriwal started his political career on an anti-Congress plank – since the Congress-led UPA was in power at the Centre at the time – and went onto become quite a thorn in the BJP’s side. Kejriwal has had a strange situationship with the Congress, having formed a brief government in alliance with it in 2013.
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Even now, the AAP was part of the Congress-led INDIA bloc in the Lok Sabha polls – they fought Delhi’s seven parliamentary seats together – and they were exploring a pact in Haryana. But acrimony ensued after Kejriwal got out of jail after a two-month stay, and the Congress too became aggressive in claiming its lost vote banks.
If the exit polls and the final results match, the Delhi assembly election would mean significant gains for the BJP after the wins in Haryana and Maharashtra, which had come soon after the party failed to get a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha.
Despite some natural anti-incumbency, the AAP was riding on hopes after it ended the BJP’s long run in the Delhi municipal elections about a year ago. But it appears that Delhi is the perfect example of the dictum, “every election is different”.
